First meeting: 23.-25.11.2016

PI:
Roberto Salguero-Gomez

iDiv members:
Tiffany Knight
Stan Harpole

Project summary:
Extinctions and invasions are at their most fundamental level pure demographic processes; species go extinct or invade because their population numbers decline or increase, respectively, from what would be optimal. Understanding which and how species may become locally/globally extinct or invasive has become one of the most pressing needs to preserve biodiversity. Projecting demographic trends to evaluate the viability of endangered species or the invasive potential of alien species can be challenging due to various reasons, including the need to collect field demographic data before such predictions can be adequately made, and the use of sophisticated modelling technics that often times do not include all the complexities of the studied taxa. Here we take advantage of two unique open-access repositories of high-resolution demographic information for over 2,000 plant and animal species from around the globe, a hyper-resolution climate model that makes accurate predictions into past and future years, and the collective expertise of the working group members (mathematical demography, invasion biology, conservation science, climate modelling, demographic projections, sensitivity analysis) to evaluate with state-of-the-art modelling techniques which species and in which habitats are more likely to go extinct or become invasive under the repertoire of IPCC climate projections. The proposed working group and nominated postdoc will produce (i) several high-impact factor publications on novel combination of methodologies to project species viability into the future, (ii) a freeware application for teaching and general public dissemination purposes, (iii) a scientific symposium with an (iv) associated special feature on demographic viability and climate change, and (v) a general public session to raise awareness on the challenges of climate change for biodiversity and ways in which species may cope with them.

Participants:
Stan Harpole (iDiv); Tamora James (University of Sheffield); Roberto Salguero-Gomez (University of Sheffield); Maria Paniw Simpson (Universidad de Cadiz); Britta Teller (Utah State University); Tiffany Knight (iDiv)