This text is based on a press release by the University of Vienna
High‑resolution global maps revealing the expansion risk of thousands of non-native plant species — under today’s conditions and future climate and land‑use scenarios — have been produced for the first time by an international research team led by the University of Vienna with involvement of researchers from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv).
Their results, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, show that global hotspots of non‑native plant expansion will shift geographically, with temperate regions facing increasing risks, while risks may decline in some subtropical areas. The introduction of non‑native species into new regions by humans has become increasingly common, with many spreading widely and sometimes affecting native species and local livelihoods.
“This unique data collection and modelling effort shows also that we will see substantially more non-native plants in Northern, cooler regions in the future,” explains iDiv’s Dr Marten Winter, who is co-author and co-founder of the GloNAF database underlying the study.
The researchers combined global data on non-native plant distributions with environmental variables to model the expansion risk of 9,701 species. Using high‑resolution data and robust modelling approaches, they assessed current patterns and projected future changes under different climate and land‑use scenarios until the end of the 21st century.
“Overall, we found that one third of the global land surface is currently suitable for at least 10% of these alien species, making these areas invasion hotspots, where many alien plants are expected to occur,” explains first author Dr Ali Omer of the University of Vienna. He adds: “Most of these current hotspots are located in subtropical and warm temperate regions, including already large parts of Europe.”
This finding suggests that Europe belongs to the regions facing some of the highest expansion risks worldwide.
Current hotspots of plant expansion will shift poleward
Hotspots are expected to shift poleward into colder regions such as Central Europe and contract in increasingly hot and dry subtropical semi‑arid regions. In Europe, species such as ragweed, with its highly allergenic pollen, and black locust, which invades forests and grasslands, are expected to become more widespread under a warming climate. Remote areas in boreal and polar regions are also projected to become more susceptible to non‑native plant expansion, causing rising negative impacts on these currently often untouched ecosystems.
New set of non‑native plants replaces current ones
“Not only the location of the invasion hotspots but also the identity of invading species is expected to change”, Omer highlights. Under severe climate change, there may be little overlap between current and future assemblages of non‑native plant species in some regions, indicating substantial species turnover. The researchers expect a new set of non‑native plant species adapted to warmer conditions to invade many regions.
The study also highlights the dynamic nature of plant expansion under global change. The shift of hotspots towards densely populated temperate regions is likely to increase impacts on native biota and human well‑being. This first high‑resolution global assessment of expansion risk for thousands of non‑native plant species provides an important basis for developing proactive and region‑specific management strategies to reduce the impacts of biological expansions under changing environmental conditions.
Original publication
(Researchers with iDiv affiliation bolded)
Omer A., Dullinger S., Wessely J., Lenzner B., García‑Rodríguez A., Schertler A., Moser D., Gattringer A., Davis A. J. S., Dawson W., Fristoe T. S., Grenié M., Kinlock N. L., Kreft H., Pergl J., Pyšek P., van Kleunen M., Weigelt P., Winter M., Zurell D. & Essl F. (2026) The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land‑use changes.Nature Ecology and Evolution. DOI:10.1038/s41559-026-03040-2
Contact
Dr Marten Winter
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig – iDiv
University of Leipzig
Head of sDiv
Telephone: +49 341 9733129
E-Mail: marten.winter@idiv.de
Christine Coester
Impact Unit
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig – iDiv
Telephone: +49 341 97 33197
E-Mail: christine.coester@idiv.de
Please note: Use of pictures provided by iDiv is permitted for media reports related to this press release only, and under the condition that credit is given to the original picture owner.