Our new project “Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services scenario-based inter-model comparison 2” (BES-SIM 2) aims to develop reliable future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem service changes using the Nature Futures scenarios for the next Global Assessment of IPBES. Building on BES-SIM 1, which was published last year (https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441), BES-SIM 2 expands its scope by integrating both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, addressing previous limitations of scenarios that treated nature as an endpoint and lacked cross-system integration. The framework (see figure below) promotes a more holistic understanding of biodiversity dynamics across time and space through multi-scale modelling, social-ecological feedbacks, and the development of collaborative, next-generation models. Additionally, BES-SIM 2 aims to facilitate collaboration and methodological improvements, align with global biodiversity and sustainability goals, and support informed decision-making for conservation and sustainable development by addressing complex environmental challenges and fostering positive visions for future coexistence with nature.
Integrational aspects
- Combining global with regional and local scales: Discussing how to connect global models with regional and local data, acknowledging the need for both global consistency and local relevance. This includes addressing challenges in downscaling and harmonising data across scales.
- Linking land-use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services: Aiming to create a more integrated picture by modelling how changes in land use affect biodiversity and ecosystem services. This involves using multiple models and harmonising different datasets.
- Integrating terrestrial and marine systems: Discussing how to connect terrestrial and marine models to capture interactions between these systems.
- Harmonising data and methods: Addressing inconsistencies and complexities arising from using multiple models and datasets. Working towards a more standardized approach to data handling and model execution.
- Including cultural and relational elements: Recognising the importance of integrating cultural values and human-nature relationships into the models and indicators.
- Collaboration and community building: Emphasizing the need for collaboration and open-source tools to allow researchers from different backgrounds to contribute to and use the models.
Our modeling exercise offers several exciting avenues for collaboration with other research groups, both within iDiv and beyond. The integrated approach, linking terrestrial and marine ecosystems and incorporating diverse value perspectives, is relevant to anyone working on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and land/sea-use change modeling. The project’s emphasis on harmonising modeling outputs and aligning with the Global Biodiversity Framework makes it a valuable resource for informing policy and conservation efforts at multiple scales. Furthermore, the refined modeling techniques and datasets produced will be openly available in the EBV portal, providing a foundation for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations across diverse scientific communities.
Contact: gavin.stark@idiv.de